The Predicate

CNN-IBN-Hindu pre-poll survey

It is time to roll out the surveys and polls and much reading between the lines. The first important poll is out, the CNN-IBN-Hindu survey (Thanks to SambarMafia for the link).

The main results of the poll are:

A CNN-IBN-Hindu pre-poll survey predicts that it is going to be a very close race between the alliances of the two Dravidian outfits in the 234-member strong Tamil Nadu Assembly.

According to the survey, the AIADMK will get a 46 per cent share of the votes and the DMK 44 per cent. Actor-politician Vijaykanth’s party, the DMDK, is projected to get 5 per cent of the votes.

As many as 67 per cent respondents felt satisfied with the government. Only 24 per cent felt dissatisfied.

42 per cent respondents would like Jayalalitha to be the next chief minister. As many as 39 per cent respondents favoured M Karunanidhi for the post. Vijaykanth came a distant third in the preference list.

Vijaykanth, whose party will be the third largest force in the elections, could be the dark horse. He has managed to dent the vote base of almost all parties. According to the survey, 49 per cent of his support comes from the DMK base and 25 from AIADMK base.

Coverage in The Hindu as well.

My take on this survey:

These results are not too surprising. I would have expected ADMK to be marginally ahead in the polls. There are no major trends or swings sweeping the elections, so the parties would hold on to their bases and grab a bit of the undecided votes. People preferring Jayalalitha to Karunanidhi for Chief Minister is not surprising as well, given Karunanidhi's age and the uncertainity of how long can he rule and what will happen after his time.

One point where I disagree with IBN/Hindu is on their conclusions based on the percentage of votes. Hindu opines: The current indications are that it will be the closest election ever fought in Tamil Nadu. It is also likely that the Opposition benches will have respectable numbers for the first time in the Assembly. If voting intentions revealed before the nomination of candidates hold until polling day, no single party will have a majority. I think this is reading too much into the %age of votes. The reason is that the percentage of votes DO NOT translate into percentage of seats.

Even when the polls have been totally one-sided, the opposition parties have managed to win a decent percentage of votes. If I remember right, when Jayalalitha routed Karunanidhi the first time, DMK still got more than 30% of the votes or something like that. So, even if the two parties get 46% and 44% of the seats, it might happen that ADMK will still get a simple majority of seats.

The main reason for this is that our elections do not need a winner to win a majority of votes, and we do not have a runoff election to decide. We also don't have a way for voters to decide who is their second choice, third choice and so on. So, the parties may be in dead heat when it comes to votes got, but I still think one party (I am guessing ADMK, for now) will end up with a majority.

The next interesting point about these results is that 67% of voters are satisfied with the work of the current government. Tamilnadu polls usually have a huge anti-incumbency factor (which was missing only during the MGR reign). It looks like Jayalalitha's government has managed to overcome that big disadvantage. Surely, the various sops given in the past year would have helped.

Vijaykanth must be happy about these results. His party is getting 5% of the votes, which is pretty big for a party contesting for the first time, riding solely on the popularity of a single leader. If his 5% voteshare is not evenly distributed, but is concentrated in a few key constituencies, he will be a big factor in deciding who will win in those constituencies. I doubt that his party would actually win seats in the election, but getting 5% votes and becoming a registered party will get DMDK a lot more bargaining power the next time around.

The survey doesn't show Stalin in good light. 5% of people preferred Vijaykanth for the Chief Minister post, but only 1% preferred Stalin. Again, goes to show that Stalin has absolutely no charisma and popularity by himself. 39% preferred Mu.Ka for CM, so some of that will transfer to Stalin. But, DMK will take a major step backward if Stalin is at its helm.

balaji - clock 14:48:27 - Thursday, 13.04.06 - Indian - 23688x - pencil permalink
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Comments:

  1. [1] from: Sa.Thirumalairajan

    I still dont believe such forecasts. Tamil Nadu politics always went by arithmetic than by any psychological chemistry. Except for 1980 assembly election that followed a parliament election and the subsequent dismissal of MGR govt. Only in that election MGR could win the combination of Congress+one of the dravidian parties. Each party has a solid vote bank of its own from its support base. When that fact is considered DMK+Cong+Communists should have an easy win. A myth/propaganda that ADMK is going to win is beig planted by Kumudam. ADMK has no chance, unless otherwise there is a swing of neutral vote bank in favour of ADMK. Such neutral voters normally wont cast their votes under normal circumstances. Even if they support ADMK, it is the burden of ADMK to push them to the booths. Unless that happens, I still see a clear vitory for DMK and combo.
    What a fortunate the population of Tamil Nadu are?!! free rice (almost) free electricity, free TV, free cable and today MK announced free muttai (eggs), if free liquor also can be supplied TN will be almost a heaven (erak kurya sorgam). Free rice, liquor and TV for parents, free cycle, food and eggs for children, whatelse people of a country needs? Who the hell should bother about infrastructure, economy or human resource development and all? Govt is there to supply all free and the media and Kolywood are there to entertain with serials and cinemas. What else one should need in life? Long Live dravidian politics :))

    Regards
    Rajan

    reply to this comment
    1. this comment inspired stalin — #2
    2. this comment inspired bala — #7
    3. this comment inspired Nisanth — #9
    Sunday, 16.04.06, 13:48:33
  2. [2] from: stalin

    inspired by Sa.Thirumalairajan — #1 sure DMK is going to win

    reply to this comment Wednesday, 26.04.06, 02:23:36
  3. [3] from: stalin

    At the last edge sure DMK is going to win because of the coalition with Congress+Communist+PMK. ADMK is going to lose because of Vaiko and SarathKumar who came to ADMK. Before Vaiko came to ADMK, somewhat favour to ADMK, but now sure ADMK is going to LOSE and DMK is going to win

    reply to this comment
    1. this comment inspired Edison Packiyaraj — #4
    2. this comment inspired Edison Packiyaraj — #5
    Wednesday, 26.04.06, 02:26:29
  4. [4] from: Edison Packiyaraj

    inspired by stalin — #3Mrs.Jayalalitha has achieved greater things by giving simply a very good rule as compared to the previous DMK rule. But what she has given is not upto our expectation since the thing is been overtreated in Cinemas. Mr.Vijayakanth is acting in film as a very good and clean 'will politician'. If it is possible for him to do the promised things, definitely it's going to change the tamil nadu's history. As a youth, I expect Mr.Vijayakanth to sit in the Chief Minister and rule Tamil Nadu. Will Tamil nadu people think and vote?

    reply to this comment
    1. this comment inspired veronica — #18
    Thursday, 27.04.06, 01:20:56
  5. [5] from: Edison Packiyaraj

    inspired by stalin — #3 No, this is impossible. DMK should not win because thay are looking only their family business.

    reply to this comment Thursday, 27.04.06, 01:23:27
  6. [6] from: TN Voter

    In a close contest, my take is ADMK. It has always been in the past, when people are guessing, Jaya is the victor, just like our cricket team.

    After MGRs death, ADMK split and people were guessing who will take over his reigns. An election fought in a rooster symbol and erstwhile heavy weights in the factional ADMK that had more money power, she beat every odds and was in the opposition with 25+ members, more than MGR himself secured on his exit from parent DMK when he floated the ADMK party.

    Same when she was thrown out in '96, our guess was end of her career with 5 years to battle litigations. But she made a daring alliance with BJP for the first time to sweep 30 upon 40 parliamentary seats for her alliance when the pre polls predicted barely 5!!

    Then again after her last '04 disastrous defeat for Lok Sabha, she continously won the by elections especially Kancheepuram where she was portrayed as fighting the Hindu religion itself.

    I am sure given the inconclusive pre polls and a neck to neck that keep everyone guessing, her trend place her back into leading the state, once again.

    I have nothing against DMK, but I hate the Maran's who are no different than Jayalalitha in her earlier term between 91-96.

    reply to this comment Friday, 28.04.06, 03:37:40
  7. [7] from: bala

    inspired by Sa.Thirumalairajan — #1
    Fantastic commnet !. Wonderful . I want to resign my job and goto heaven called TN :)

    I'm going to sit back and enjoy TV with snacks & beer :)

    reply to this comment Saturday, 29.04.06, 17:38:55
  8. [8] from: niside raj

    don't despise anything
    be realistic

    reply to this comment Tuesday, 02.05.06, 04:05:44
  9. [9] from: Nisanth

    inspired by Sa.Thirumalairajan — #1 Instead of giving free. Teach the people how to earn. Ex: giving the net to catch fish is better than giving a fish.

    I dont think DMK will win because everyday he is giving some free. Finally, I dont know even he will say i will give Rs. 10000 free every month to the general public. Its all cheating people.

    Please think & Vote.

    reply to this comment Tuesday, 02.05.06, 23:37:21
  10. [10] from: anand

    i think m.k should go off from tamil nadu

    reply to this comment Wednesday, 03.05.06, 05:06:54
  11. [11] from: vijay

    hi...as quoted I am also looking for a clean sweep by admk front. I expect 130-140 definitely considering each district separately. this may go down or go up a little bit by 5%. mr.vijaykanth is the man to watch out for the most of the oppurtunistic parties like pmk and communist..i think 2 seats are already in his bag(banruti and vriddachalam). a party with a long history like communist would have stood alone or atleast with vijaykanth...no comments about congress.. i dont think there is any more congress now in tamilnadu..all congress leaders are slaves for anna arivalayam except nellai kannan...hmmm..hats off to mr.ramadoss..he is very quiet this time and i expect him to change side as usual after tasting defeat in the elections..anywayz may 8 is very near...letz see what really happens. i pray for amma to stay in what she is now and not as she was in 2002, 2003 and 2004.

    reply to this comment Friday, 05.05.06, 00:59:46
  12. [12] from: swetha

    I want DMK to take the powers.

    reply to this comment Sunday, 07.05.06, 01:01:27
  13. [13] from: Vimal.R

    amma would emerge victorious simply becoz of the fact that the dmk alliance does not hve any powerful leader after mu.ka.... stalin is not worth of leadership becos already has a name of being a womaniser....maran is a MP who cares more for his family than the state or the country.. how dare he could threaten the tatas the very first industrialists in india....everyone says lok paritran & vijayakanth but please let me know how can anyone prove his mettle if only 2 or 3 of the otal mlas are behind him....people need to think & vote.. ar the people worried at this point ...? the answaer is a big NO..so lets continue growing under amma... no grudges against mu.ka .. but time has come to look beyond him & i find no other leader in DMK... sorry but amma would be victorious...

    reply to this comment Sunday, 07.05.06, 22:37:34
  14. [14] from: silambarasan

    DMK will gain individual majority,thats for sure.

    reply to this comment Monday, 08.05.06, 02:37:44
  15. [15] from: Rajesh

    Tamil Nadu should be Ruled by tamilian...
    So that some one for other state like Jayalalitha wont simply remove Kannaki statue... what does she know about it.... ?

    reply to this comment Monday, 08.05.06, 08:17:01
  16. [16] from: Sudhakar

    Guys,

    M.Karunanidhi is the Next CM for Tamil nadu. This is Tamil Nadu People's decision.

    Who do u compare Karunanidi & JJ. Do u all know how she came to Politcs?, She came by the Cinema fame only.Many of the Tamilnadu people are Cinema idiots.

    Karunanidi is the Best Politician,He came from the base, no one can comment his Political life.He has done lot for the Tamil nadu peoples.

    I want to tell one thing to all the stupids comment abt Free TV scheme that he offers it for his family welfare. Now entire tamil nadu is watching Cable TV. Who bring this to Tamil nadu? They Only Brought it.

    If He had not brought Cable TV(sun tv), Now u should watch only DD only...

    Please Don't comment Karunanidhi's political carrier..

    reply to this comment
    1. this comment inspired sunita — #17
    Tuesday, 09.05.06, 05:32:37
  17. [17] from: sunita

    inspired by Sudhakar — #16 idiotic & childish comments

    reply to this comment Tuesday, 09.05.06, 21:34:27
  18. [18] from: veronica

    inspired by Edison Packiyaraj — #4 what rubbish??? there is no limit to peoples expectations ,she has definitely tried to keep terrorist activities at bay,very well executed the viranam project , handled well the tsunami,flood hazard,cradle system and many more .
    what experience does vijaykant have,you tamilnadu people are crazy,zombies.you people dont use your mind,only your heart speaks. if jaya is defeated,then this would prove you peole are heartless & confused lot.

    reply to this comment Tuesday, 09.05.06, 22:31:08
  19. [19] from: Gopinath

    DMK does not have a proper administration power.
    If DMK comes to power and Karunanidhi wants to sign off a document, he will have to wait for one week to get the internal sign offs from his sons, grand sons, mamas, machans.....
    Is this the way TN people expect a Government\'s Administration.

    I would prefer ADMK as a ruling party for itz well known AUTHORITIVE ADMINISTRATION POWER

    reply to this comment Wednesday, 10.05.06, 01:54:43
  20. [20] from: H.Hyder

    Dmk will win

    reply to this comment Wednesday, 10.05.06, 12:47:42

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